經(jīng)濟(jì)問題中的概率統(tǒng)計(jì)模型及應(yīng)用

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摘要：近代以來，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)飛速發(fā)展，產(chǎn)生各種多樣化的經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，使得概率統(tǒng)計(jì)模型在解決經(jīng)濟(jì)問題時(shí)表現(xiàn)出的重要性與優(yōu)越性越來越顯著。本文就市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)，企業(yè)投資決策，個(gè)人生活中的彩票三個(gè)方面進(jìn)行研究。市場(chǎng)方面，本文采用分析樣本容量的確定問題和分層抽樣方法分析市場(chǎng)調(diào)查問題，以及采用多元回歸預(yù)測(cè)分析預(yù)測(cè)市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)；企業(yè)方面，采用投資期望效用理論討論企業(yè)投資與對(duì)最佳方案的選擇的決策問題；個(gè)人方面，通過對(duì)幾種受市民歡迎的彩票類型中將概率的分析，直觀的揭示彩票中獎(jiǎng)率的本質(zhì)。最后，綜合說明概率統(tǒng)計(jì)模型在當(dāng)今經(jīng)濟(jì)問題研究中的重要性，以及如何恰到好處的運(yùn)用概率統(tǒng)計(jì)模型來解決經(jīng)濟(jì)問題。
關(guān)鍵詞：概率統(tǒng)計(jì)； 經(jīng)濟(jì)問題； 應(yīng)用； 回歸預(yù)測(cè)分析

Application of Probability and Statistics in Economics

Abstract: With the diversification of economic problems and the increasing of the matical means, the study methods of economic problems is more and more Rich.In this paper, the market economy, the enterprise investment decision-making,research in three aspects of the personal life of lottery.From the market,analysis the sample size how to be determinated and analysis the market research problem by the mean of the stratified sampling analysis,and uses the Multiple regression prediction analysis to forecast the market’s trend. From the enterprises,apply the Investment expected utility theory to discuss the investment of corporations and make the best choose about the decision solutions of this problem; Personally, through the analysis of types of lottery ticket will be popular with some probability, intuitive nature of the lottery winning rate.Furthermore,give suggestions from the Various aspects.Last,consolidated stating the importance of the the probability statistical model to soluting the economic problems of today，meanwhile,explanate how to use the probability statistical model to soluting the economic problems in the fine.

Keywords: Probability and Statistics； Economic issues； Application； Regression
prediction analysis


目 錄

引 言 3
第一章 概率統(tǒng)計(jì)模型在市場(chǎng)中的應(yīng)用 4
1.1 概率統(tǒng)計(jì)模型在市場(chǎng)調(diào)查中的應(yīng)用 4
1.2 概率統(tǒng)計(jì)模型在市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用 9
1.3 概率統(tǒng)計(jì)模型在市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷中的應(yīng)用 13
第二章 概率統(tǒng)計(jì)模型在企業(yè)投資決策中的應(yīng)用 15
2.1 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)型決策 15
2.2 不同標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的決策方法 16
2.3 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)型決策的決策樹 16
2.4 概率統(tǒng)計(jì)模型在企業(yè)投資決策中的應(yīng)用案例 17
第三章 概率統(tǒng)計(jì)模型在個(gè)人生活中的應(yīng)用 19
3.1 幾種彩票類型及其概率分析 19
3.2 小結(jié) 22
結(jié) 論 23
致 謝 25
參考文獻(xiàn) 26