完整經(jīng)濟學(xué)博士論文，全文161頁，合計11. 8萬字
中文摘要
論文從純經(jīng)濟學(xué)的研究視角，對國家經(jīng)濟安全進行新定義，并從封閉經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)和開放經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)兩個方面，論述了影響國家經(jīng)濟安全的因素和機制。經(jīng)濟全球化加強了各國之間的經(jīng)濟聯(lián)系，促進了國際貿(mào)易、對外直接投資和資本流動的發(fā)展。一方面，各國之間日益密切的經(jīng)濟聯(lián)系促進了國家的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，使世界經(jīng)濟得到了很大的發(fā)展；另一方面，世界經(jīng)濟整體發(fā)展下卻是國與國之間利益分配不均衡的事實。經(jīng)濟全球化使許多發(fā)展中國家增加了把本國發(fā)展成為工業(yè)化國家的機會，為發(fā)展中國家的發(fā)展提供了前所未有的機遇，事實也證明經(jīng)濟全球化確實可以提高一國的生產(chǎn)力水平，使發(fā)展中國家走向富裕。亞洲“四小龍”和“四小虎”的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展歷程充分證明了這一點。
然而，必須承認，經(jīng)濟全球化是一把鋒利的雙刃劍，它在給世界經(jīng)濟帶來一定活力、促進全球經(jīng)濟增長的同時，也帶來經(jīng)濟上的不平等和貧富懸殊的不斷加劇，導(dǎo)致了一系列破壞性的經(jīng)濟事件的發(fā)生，如國際金融危機的頻繁發(fā)生，現(xiàn)存的不平等貿(mào)易制度和規(guī)則使發(fā)展中國家的貿(mào)易條件更加惡化，跨國公司的趨利性、壟斷性和掠奪性給廣大發(fā)展中國家?guī)砣娴钠茐男缘鹊?。因此，全球化背景下，國家?jīng)濟如何才能穩(wěn)定發(fā)展，成為了一國必須面臨和解決的問題。國家經(jīng)濟安全是一國在經(jīng)濟獨立自主的前提下經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定增長的狀態(tài)?？鐕镜难杆侔l(fā)展嚴重威脅一國的經(jīng)濟自主權(quán)，與此同時國與國之間日益密切的金融聯(lián)系使經(jīng)濟不穩(wěn)定的機率增大，不平等的貿(mào)易制度和規(guī)則使發(fā)展中國家的經(jīng)濟增長的代價更大。
國家經(jīng)濟安全是純公共品，必須有政府提供。但與其他純公共品不同的是，經(jīng)濟安全的提供必須依賴市場，沒有市場就沒有經(jīng)濟增長。但是市場中“看不見的手”無法帶領(lǐng)國家進入安全狀態(tài)，綜上所述，“看不見的手”是無法帶領(lǐng)國家進入經(jīng)濟安全的狀態(tài)的。甚至可以說，正是這只“看不見的手”才使經(jīng)濟發(fā)展波動幅度變大，波動頻率變高，正是這只手將國家經(jīng)濟帶入了一種不安全的狀態(tài)。只有政府可以使國家利益、政府利益和居民利益得到統(tǒng)一，能夠平衡國家的長遠經(jīng)濟利益和短期經(jīng)濟利益。國家經(jīng)濟安全這個抽象的目標可以分解為物價、就業(yè)、經(jīng)濟總量三個字母表。只要這三個子目標實現(xiàn)了，也就實現(xiàn)了國家經(jīng)濟安全。在實現(xiàn)國家經(jīng)濟安全的子目標過程中，需要經(jīng)濟安全的支撐體系。市場經(jīng)濟環(huán)境是最根本的支撐體系，除此之外，還包括產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、金融穩(wěn)定、收入分配和社會保障四個政策體系。
封閉經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)中國家經(jīng)濟安全只涉及經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定增長，經(jīng)濟全球化加強了國與國之間的經(jīng)濟聯(lián)系，因此全球化背景下，國家經(jīng)濟安全是經(jīng)濟獨立自主條件下的經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。國家貿(mào)易、對外直接投資和貨幣資本流動，對封閉經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)中經(jīng)濟安全的子目標和支撐體系有一定的沖擊，與此同時，對國家經(jīng)濟控制力的影響更為突出。國際貿(mào)易可以提高一國的貿(mào)易依存度，無論是出口依存還是進口依存，對國家經(jīng)濟控制和經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定都有不利的影響，最為突出的就是反傾銷和貿(mào)易壁壘已成為發(fā)達國家影響發(fā)展中國家貿(mào)易發(fā)展和國家經(jīng)濟獨立、穩(wěn)定的重要工具。作為對外直接投資的主要載體的跨國公司，其無國界屬性和經(jīng)濟利益與東道國經(jīng)濟利益存在著矛盾，這種固有的矛盾沖突注定對東道國經(jīng)濟獨立和穩(wěn)定有不利影響。頻繁的資本流動會使通貨膨脹在全球范圍傳遞，使國家經(jīng)濟波動幅度加大，更為嚴重的結(jié)果就是金融危機的全面爆發(fā)，對國家乃至世界經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展都將是致命的。而同時國家在面臨這些大大小小的沖擊時，往往是束手無策，只能任其發(fā)展，這也許就是全球化背景下實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的代價。
全球化背景下，國家為了使經(jīng)濟發(fā)展必須加強與他國的經(jīng)濟聯(lián)系，但是日益密切的聯(lián)系卻給國家經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定和國家經(jīng)濟控制力帶來了負面影響。所以全球化對國家經(jīng)濟安全的影響是頗為復(fù)雜的。在這種情況下，各國政府一方面需要發(fā)揮全球化促進經(jīng)濟增長的功能，并制定各種政策使其發(fā)揮最大效力；另一方面需要時刻警惕全球化對經(jīng)濟安全的破壞作用，制定各種短期和長期政策，使其破壞程度達到最小。

關(guān)鍵詞：經(jīng)濟安全 全球化 國際貿(mào)易 對外直接投資 國際資本流動

Abstract
Economic globalization enhances the international connection and accelerates the development of international trade, foreign direct investment and capital flows. On one hand, the closer and closer international economic connection stimulates the development of each nation, which promotes the development of global economy as well. On the other hand, under the overall development of global economy is the unbalance of profit distribution among different countries. Economic globalization gives the developing country a good chance for development and to become more and more industrial. In fact, it has been proved that economic globalization helps to develop the productivity of one country and enriches the developing country. The progress of Asian “four little dragons” and “four little tigers” are just this case.
But, it has to be admitted that economic globalization is also a sharp double-edged sword. It does bring good benefit to global economy and does make it more energetic and stimulating its development. Meanwhile, it also brings the unbalance of economic development and enlarge the distance of the rich and poor, which results in series of destroyable economic events, such as the frequent occurrence of international financial crisis, the unequal trade terms and rules which deteriorates the trade of developing countries and the characteristics of profit-oriented, monopoly and robbery of international enterprises which brings overall destroy to most developing countries. Therefore, on the background of economic globalization, how to ensure the stability of economic development becomes an inevitable problem one country is faced and have to solve. Economic safety of one country is kind of status of stable economic development in the premise of economic independence. The fast development of international enterprise threatens the economic independence seriously. In the meantime, the closer economic connection enlarges this kind of probability, unequal trade rules and terms require higher cost of developing country in terms of economic development.
National economic safety is pure public belongings and must be supplied by government. But the difference compare with other public belongings is that economic security must rely on the market. No market, no economic development. But the “invisible hand” of market can not bring on country into the status of safety. What’s more, it’s just the “invisible hand” which enlarge the fluctuation and raise the fluctuation frequency. And it’s just this hand which brings one country into the status of unsafety. No other than government can unify the interest of nation, government and people, can balance the long-term economic profit and short-term economic profit. The abstract concept of national economic safety is composed of three sub-targets—price, employment and economic aggregate. To realize the safety of these three sub-targets is to realize the safety of national economy. During the progress to realize these sub-targets, support system for economic safety is much needed. The basis of market economic environment is support system. In addition, industrial structure, financial stability, income distribution and social security are also included. In a sealed economic system, only economic stable development is involved.
Economic globalization enhances the economic connection among nations. Therefore, in the background of globalization, national economy security is the stable development of economy in the condition of economic independence. National trade, direct investment and currency capital flow have certain impact on the sub-targets and support system of economy safety in the sealed economic system. On the same time, they also have significant impact on the control of national economy. International trade can improve the trade reliability of one country, both for import and for export, so it influences the economic control and stability of one country negatively, especially of anti-dumping and trade barriers which have become an important tool for developed country to influence the trade development and economic independence of developing country. Being the main carrier of outwards direct investment, the international enterprise has the nature of no national boundary and economic profit which conflict with the economic profit of host country. This born contradiction is destined to have bad impact on host country’s economic independence and stability. Frequent capital flow will transport the inflation worldwide and enlarge the fluctuation of national economy. The worst is the blow of financial crisis, which is fatal to the development both of country and of the world. Usually one country has nothing to do with these big or small impacts and just let it what it should be. Maybe this is the cost to realize the development of economy under the economic globalization.
Under the development of globalization, to realize the economic development, one country has to enforce its economic connection with other countries. But it also brings negative effect to national economy stability and control ability. Therefore, the effect of globalization to one country’s economy is more complicated. In this situation, government needs to exert the function of stimulating the development of economy by globalization and constitute all kinds of policy to ensure its effectiveness. On the other hand, we should also be cautious of the destroyable effect of globalization to economy security and constitute long-term and short-term policy to minimize its destroy degree.

Key Words：Economic Safety Globalization International trade FDI International Capital Flows

目錄
第一章 引言 1
第一節(jié) 選題背景和問題的提出 1
第二節(jié) 研究目的和意義 4
第三節(jié) 文獻綜述 5
第四節(jié) 研究方法 11
第五節(jié) 論文結(jié)構(gòu)安排 11
第二章 國家經(jīng)濟安全概述 13
第一節(jié) 國家經(jīng)濟安全問題的研究背景 13
2.1.1 歷史背景 13
2.1.2 理論背景 13
第二節(jié) 國家經(jīng)濟安全的概念 15
2.2.1 國家經(jīng)濟安全的含義和界定 15
2.2.2 與經(jīng)濟安全有關(guān)的概念的辨析 18
2.2.3 國家經(jīng)濟安全中的敏感領(lǐng)域 19
第三章 封閉經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)的國家經(jīng)濟安全 23
第一節(jié) 政府與國家經(jīng)濟安全 23
第二節(jié) 經(jīng)濟總量增長 29
3.2.1 波動幅度 31
3.2.2 波動頻率 34
3.2.3 平均增長率 35
3.2.4 綜合評述 36
第三節(jié) 充分就業(yè) 37
第四節(jié) 物價穩(wěn)定 41
第五節(jié) 國家經(jīng)濟安全的支撐體系 43
3.5.1 適當(dāng)?shù)漠a(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu) 44
3.5.2 金融穩(wěn)定 45
3.5.3 收入分配 47
3.5.4 社會保障 48
第四章 國際貿(mào)易與國家經(jīng)濟安全 51
第一節(jié) 國際貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟增長 52
4.1.1 出口與經(jīng)濟增長 53
4.1.2 進口與經(jīng)濟增長 54
4.1.3 模型檢驗 55
第二節(jié) 國際貿(mào)易與產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展 58
第三節(jié) 國際貿(mào)易與收入分配 60
4.3.1 國際貿(mào)易與國家間的收入差距 60
4.3.2 國際貿(mào)易與國內(nèi)收入分配 62
第四節(jié) 國際貿(mào)易與國家經(jīng)濟控制力 66
4.4.1 貿(mào)易依存度與國家經(jīng)濟控制力 66
4.4.2 非關(guān)稅貿(mào)易壁壘對我國經(jīng)濟活動的沖擊 72
第五章 FDI與國家經(jīng)濟安全 80
第一節(jié) FDI與經(jīng)濟增長 80
5.1.1 理論和實證研究 80
5.1.2 模型檢驗 82
第二節(jié) FDI與產(chǎn)業(yè)安全 85
5.2.1 FDI與產(chǎn)業(yè)控制安全 86
5.2.2 FDI與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)安全 87
5.2.3 FDI與產(chǎn)業(yè)效率安全 89
5.2.4 FDI與產(chǎn)業(yè)技術(shù)安全 90
第三節(jié) FDI與市場結(jié)構(gòu) 92
5.3.1 FDI影響東道國市場結(jié)構(gòu)的決定因素 92
5.3.2 FDI對東道國市場結(jié)構(gòu)的影響 95
第四節(jié) 跨國公司的跨國界屬性及其對國家經(jīng)濟安全的影響 104
5.4.1. 經(jīng)濟全球化中的跨國公司利益和國家利益的矛盾 104
5.4.2 矛盾沖突的結(jié)果——經(jīng)濟安全的博弈分析 105
5.4.3 FDI對東道國國家經(jīng)濟安全的挑戰(zhàn) 107
5.4.4 多邊投資框架的發(fā)展與東道國的經(jīng)濟安全 109
第六章 國際資本流動與國家經(jīng)濟安全 115
第一節(jié) 國際資本流動與經(jīng)濟增長 115
6.1.1 國際資本流動對經(jīng)濟增長的影響機制 115
6.1.2 國際資本流動促進經(jīng)濟增長的實證研究結(jié)果 116
第二節(jié) 國際資本流動與通貨膨脹 120
6.2.1 全球性通貨膨脹理論概要 120
6.2.2 通貨膨脹的國際傳遞機制 121
6.2.3 通貨膨脹的國際傳遞途徑及其決定因素 123
6.2.4 國際資本流動與通貨膨脹 125
第三節(jié) 國際資本流動與金融危機 126
6.3.1 金融危機概念及其產(chǎn)生原因 126
6.3.2 國際資本流動與金融危機的產(chǎn)生 127
第四節(jié) 國際資本流動與國家經(jīng)濟調(diào)控 131
第七章 結(jié)論 135
第一節(jié) 主要結(jié)論 135
7.1.1 國家經(jīng)濟安全的定義 135
7.1.2 國家經(jīng)濟安全的子目標 135
7.1.3 封閉經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)的國家經(jīng)濟安全 135
7.1.4 開放經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)的國家經(jīng)濟安全 135
第二節(jié) 理論創(chuàng)新之處 136
第三節(jié) 政策建議 137
第四節(jié) 進一步研究的方向 137
參考文獻 139
致謝 148
附錄 國家經(jīng)濟安全的指標體系 151